Role of Agricultural Infrastructure and Climate Change on Crop Diversification in Uttar Pradesh: Panel Data Analysis
Keywords:Crop Diversification, Agricultural Infrastructure, Principal Component Analysis, Random Effect Model.
AbstractThe present paper looks into the process of agricultural infrastructure and crop diversification in Uttar Pradesh (UP) at district as well as agro-climatic zone level for the period 2004-05 to 2015-16. Principal Component Analysis has been used for constructing Agricultural Infrastructure Indices (AII) and allocating ranks to identify the disparities at both levels. Simpson Index of Diversification (SID) has been used to estimate crop diversification and panel data regression analysis was used to identify the determinants of crop diversification. The results of SID confirm that the cropping pattern has undergone a significant shift from food-grains to high value crops during the study period. However, this shift is not uniformly distributed across the districts/zones. The values of Agricultural Infrastructure Index (AII) show that rural economy has been shifted towards high value with some fluctuations. The agro-climatic zone level result of UP has indicated that agro-climatic zone 1, zone 5 and zone 9 have recorded highest SID with highest AII. The results of Random Effect Model confirm that AII, fertiliser, rainfall variability, minimum temperature and literacy rate have been found the major determinants of crop diversification in Uttar Pradesh. All determinants except climatic variables had a positive impact on crop diversification. This paper suggests policy support in terms of enhanced agricultural infrastructure, mitigation of vulnerable climatic factors, appropriate use of inputs and suitable technology to enhance the degree of crop diversification and to generate higher income of farmers through crop diversification.
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